Seeded Territory: Bracketology with Patrick Stevens
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Updated March 12, 2026
INSIDE THE FIELD
Central Florida (28)
Record: 21-10 (9-9 Big 12)
Next: vs. Arizona (Thursday)
The Knights ended a three-game slide with a frantic rally late in regulation of what became an overtime defeat of Cincinnati, and that should put an end to any question about how they’ll be treated by the committee. Central Florida rates in the top 40 of all three results-based metrics on the team sheet, is a solid 5-7 in Quadrant 1 games, its worst loss came at home against a likely NIT- or Crown-bound Oklahoma State and it is 8-5 away from Orlando. Toss in victories over BYU, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Christian and Texas Tech, and the Knights are in good shape. They should be clear of Dayton as it is, but a victory over Arizona would eliminate any question. (March 12)
Texas A&M (29)
Record: 21-10 (11-7 SEC)
Next: vs. Oklahoma (Thursday)
The Aggies shouldn’t be sweating come Selection Sunday after beating Kentucky and LSU (the latter in overtime) in the final week of the regular season. Texas A&M rates as the best of the No. 10 seeds entering the week of power conference tournaments, and it is more likely to go up a line rather than down. Unless there are a spate of conference tournament upsets, the Aggies will be free and clear of a trip to Dayton, too. (March 9)
Ohio State (30)
Record: 20-11 (12-8 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Iowa (Thursday)
See? This is how it’s done. The Buckeyes delivered a timely three-game winning streak, and they’ve gone from a huge question mark with no Quadrant 1 victories to one that happily took advantage of the misery near the edge of the field and solidified their standing. Ohio State’s worst team sheet metric is 42nd in KPI and they have no bad losses. Thanks to their own work (beating Purdue) and solid play from others improving their own rankings (Wisconsin and Northwestern), Ohio State also owns three Quad 1 triumphs.
Maybe that’s skimpy enough to flirt with a trip to nearby Dayton, but that seems unlikely unless there are bid snatchers in leagues like the Atlantic 10, Mid-American and Mountain West that nudge regular season champs into the at-large field. (March 9)
N. C. State (31)
Record: 20-12 (10-8 ACC)
Next: vs. Virginia (Thursday)
The Wolfpack dropped four in a row and six of its last seven, which would have been a problem if this was a year when a lot of teams around the edge of the field could show a pulse for a week or two at a time. That mostly didn’t happen, and N.C. State went out and handled Pitt on Wednesday to avoid handing the committee a reason to hand out a demerit. N.C. State rates between 30th and 44th in the committee’s seven metrics, it is 9-6 away from Raleigh and it has some differentiating victories against borderline tournament teams (SMU, VCU, Virginia Tech). Avoiding Dayton isn’t a foregone conclusion yet, but it probably would be if the Wolfpack upends Virginia on Thursday. (March 12)
Missouri (32)
Record: 20-11 (10-8 SEC)
Next: vs. Kentucky (Thursday)
The Tigers’ metrics have retrenched a bit after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Arkansas, but they still rate in the top 50 in five of the team sheet rankings (and 52nd in another). The resume remains the same: No bad losses and a reputable group of victories (Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road). Another win wouldn’t hurt, even if it’s just viewed as an insurance policy to get out of going to Dayton on a quick turnaround. (March 9)
Santa Clara (33)
Record: 26-8 (15-3 West Coast)
The Broncos couldn’t quite spoil Gonzaga’s going-away party at the WCC tournament, gamely creating frustrations at the defensive end for 30 minutes before the Bulldogs pulled away. A victory would have definitively averted a trip to Dayton, but it’s possible Santa Clara’s first NCAA trip since 1996 includes direct entry to the round of 64, anyway. The Broncos were 8-7 against the top two quadrants, including a pair of victories over Saint Mary’s, and they land in the low 30s and high 40s of most of the team sheet metrics. Unless there is total chaos elsewhere the rest of the week, it looks like Herb Sendek will take a fourth school to the NCAA tournament. (March 11)
LAST FOUR IN
VCU (34)
Record: 24-7 (15-3 Atlantic 10)
Next: vs. Duquesne or Rhode Island (Friday)
The Rams earned their 13th victory in 14 outings by spoiling Dayton’s regular-season home finale, and they’ll head to the A-10 tournament in Pittsburgh with exactly one loss to a team not in at-large contention (Jan. 10 at George Mason) and exactly one victory over a team with even a remote shot at an at-large (Virginia Tech). VCU’s metrics are fine if not eye-catching, just one more piece of a perfectly cromulent resume that is neither overwhelmingly impressive nor offensive. The Rams are 2-5 in Quad 1 games, and they won’t add to that haul unless it beats Saint Louis in the A-10 final — at which point bickering over VCU’s at-large worthiness will be moot. (March 7)
Texas (35)
Record: 18-14 (9-9 SEC)
Wouldn’t it be something if Texas winds up missing the NCAA tournament because it couldn’t beat former coach Chris Beard and his 15th-seeded Mississippi team on Wednesday. The 76-66 loss was the Longhorns’ fifth in six games, and as solid as the 6-9 Quad 1 record is (for this part of the bracket, anyway) and the generally solid metrics (six of the seven are between 39th and 46th), no one should be surprised or anguished if Texas gets a ticket to Dayton. If that happens, the Longhorns have no one to blame but themselves. (March 12)
Southern Methodist (36)
Record: 20-13 (8-10 ACC)
Playing Louisville close on Wednesday is all well and good, but it won’t make the next few days any easier for the Mustangs. SMU has a largely inoffensive resume — SMU is between 37th and 48th in all seven team sheet metrics, are 4-9 in Quad 1 games, 5-4 in Quad 2 and 11-0 in everything else — and the gravitational pull of Dayton is strong. But the Mustangs were only 3-8 on the road, and it’s sure to be cited if they get left out. That, and some bid snatching in places like the Atlantic 10, Mid-American and Mountain West, because upsets in those conference tournaments are SMU’s greatest threat now. (March 12)
Auburn (37)
Record: 17-15 (7-11 SEC)
Next: vs. Tennessee (Thursday)
Auburn achieved what Indiana, Stanford, Texas and Virginia Tech all failed to do this week: Beat a lower-seeded team in its conference tournament opener. As a result, the Tigers are the best of a flawed lot for the last spot in the field for now. Let’s cite chapter and verse on all of Auburn’s relevant data: Fourth-toughest schedule in Division I, victories over Florida, Arkansas, St. John’s and Kentucky, and metrics between 26th and 45th that are anything but disqualifying. Also: No at-large pick has ever been less than two games over .500 (1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia were 16-14), and no at-large pick has ever entered the tournament with 16 or more losses. Thursday’s matchup against Tennessee looks like it will be one of the most significant all week for sorting out the edge of the field. (March 12)
FIRST FOUR ON THE OUTSIDE
New Mexico (38)
Record: 22-9 (13-7 Mountain West)
Next: San José State (Thursday)
The Lobos really did have a shot at an at-large berth two weeks ago, but three losses out of four have effectively sunk those hopes. The 2-6 record in Quad 1 games (highlighted by a victory at VCU) isn’t remarkable, nor are metrics that put them between 45th and 56th. It’s likely Mountain West title-or-bust for New Mexico, which could get a shot at fellow at-large longshot San Diego State in the league semifinals. (March 9)
Indiana (39)
Record: 18-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers simply had to beat Northwestern, historically a low bar for two programs of vastly different basketball pedigrees. But the Wildcats have had Indiana’s number, winning seven in a row against the Hoosiers including a 74-61 defeat in the Big Ten second round on Wednesday. Indiana is 3-10 in Quad 1 games, and while it doesn’t have a truly terrible loss to mar its resume, the Hoosiers have plenty of defeats. They dropped six of seven to close the season, and it’s unlikely the committee gives clemency to a team whose greatest virtue was avoiding a gargantuan sin. (March 12)
Virginia Tech (40)
Record: 19-13 (8-10 ACC)
An overtime loss to Wake Forest on the first day of the ACC tournament effectively finishes off the Hokies, who have been toting a resume worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NIT for weeks. Virginia Tech is 2-10 in Quad 1 games, doesn’t rank higher than 50th in any team sheet metric, hasn’t won back-to-back games since mid-January and dropped seven of its last 10. The Hokies had plenty of chances and couldn’t capitalize on nearly enough; the victory at home over Virginia and another at Clemson isn’t going to get the job done. (March 11)
Oklahoma (41)
Record: 18-14 (7-11 SEC)
Next: vs. Texas A&M (Thursday)
The Sooners remain verifiably interesting. After falling under .500 on Feb. 4, they’ve won seven of nine while picking up victories over Vanderbilt, Georgia, Auburn, Missouri and Texas. That’s proven to be jet fuel to rapidly close in on the edge of the field. Oklahoma is 3-9 in Quad 1 — par for the course this far from the edge of the field — 6-5 in Quad 2 and undefeated beyond that. The Sooners fare better in predictive metrics than results-based measures, where they land in the 40s in all three. Oklahoma isn’t at the edge of the field yet, but a victory over Texas A&M would get them closer. (March 12)
NEXT UP
San Diego State (42)
Record: 20-10 (14-6 Mountain West)
Next: vs. Colorado State (Thursday)
The Aztecs had dropped four of five before fending off UNLV on Friday night to close the regular season. Their team sheet rankings are unremarkable but not disqualifying, with all but one of them between 43rd and 54th. A 2-6 Quadrant 1 record doesn’t move the needle, and they own two victories against even remotely plausible at-large teams (Utah State and New Mexico at home). It’s unlikely San Diego State can add enough heft to its profile next week while still taking a loss. (March 7)
California (43)
Record: 21-11 (9-9 ACC)
The nonconference strength of schedule (329th) was probably going to get the Golden Bears all along, but dropping three of four to close the season definitely did the job. They were down 12 at halftime of a 95-89 loss to Florida State in the ACC second round, a defeat that effectively consigns Cal to the NIT. (March 12)
Stanford (44)
Record: 20-12 (9-9 ACC)
As interesting as the Cardinal’s 5-6 Quad 1 record is compared to other teams in this neighborhood, the four Quad 3 losses — including Tuesday’s last-second setback on a tip in against Pitt in the first round of the ACC tournament — stand out in the wrong way. Stanford’s had one of the weirder profiles among the teams near the edge of the field for the last month and a half, but there’s not enough there to get it any place except the NIT come Sunday. (March 11)
Seton Hall (45)
Record: 20-11 (10-10 Big East)
Next: vs. Creighton (Thursday)
The Pirates went 0-6 against the three tourney-bound Big East teams, and 10-4 against the rest of the league. Their overall profile is skimpy, with a 1-5 Quadrant 1 record highlighted by a Maui Invitational defeat of N.C. State. With Friday night’s loss to St. John’s, the path to the NCAA tournament is to win three games in three days in New York. (March 7)
Oklahoma State (46)
Record: 19-14 (6-12 Big 12)
While the results-based metrics were always far friendlier than other measures to the Cowboys, their 2-10 record in Quad 1 games meant their outcomes weren’t that good. Oklahoma State led for much of the second half before TCU overtook it late for a 95-88 victory on Wednesday as the last potential Big 12 bid snatcher was shuffled out of the field before the top four seeds took the court in Kansas City. (March 12)
Cincinnati (47)
Record: 18-15 (9-9 Big 12)
The Bearcats won seven of nine before squandering an eight-point edge in the final 2:17 of regulation against Central Florida. The overtime loss to the Knights puts an end to the faint at-large hopes of a team that went 3-12 in Quad 1 games and 3-12 away from home. Cincinnati would have been a strong candidate if only games from the final two months of the seasons were under consideration, but that darned first half of the season still counts, too. (March 12)
Florida State (48)
Record: 18-14 (10-8 ACC)
Next: vs. Duke (Thursday)
There aren’t enough games left for the Seminoles to get into the field without winning the ACC tournament, but their mere mention at this point should be a cause for celebration. Florida State has won 10 of 12, including Wednesday’s ACC second round defeat of California, and a profile that includes victories at Miami and Clemson and a 6-5 road record would hold up pretty well with this year’s edge of the field were it not for the slow start. A Quad 4 loss to Massachusetts hurts. The team sheet rankings — all but outside the top 60 — aren’t helpful, either, but it’s worth noting the Seminoles were 134th in the NET on Jan. 16. (March 12)
West Virginia (49)
Record: 18-14 (9-9 Big 12)
With results-based metrics in the 60s entering the Big 12 tournament, the Mountaineers were an extreme longshot to even end up among the first four teams out of the field. That definitely isn’t happening after a 68-48 drubbing administered by Brigham Young on Wednesday. A 5-9 Quad 1 record won’t be enough to get West Virginia anywhere close to in, especially with a profile that includes losses to Utah and Kansas State, the bottom two teams in the Big 12 standings. (March 12)
Arizona State (50)
Record: 17-16 (7-11 Big 12)
Iowa State was in choose-the-score territory early Wednesday on the way to a 91-42 rout of the Sun Devils. (The Cyclones were up 40-10 late in the first half). Arizona State finished 4-11 in Quad 1 games, and with none of the team sheet metrics placing better than 55th, there just wasn’t much of an argument beyond a few gaudy victories (Texas Tech and Kansas). (March 12)
Belmont (51)
Record: 26-6 (16-4 Missouri Valley)
The Bruins are headed for the NIT, but a team with that gaudy a record will have its supporters, so an explanation is in order. Belmont was 0-1 in Quadrant 1 games (a victory over Northern Iowa that only became a Quad 1 contest when the Panthers won Arch Madness), lost four Quadrant 3 games and have a nonconference schedule strength ranked 343rd The 5-2 Quad 2 record is nice, but the Bruins rank in the top 60 of just one team sheet metric and just gave up 100 points to Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals. (March 9)
Southern California (52)
Record: 18-14 (7-13 Big Ten)
The Trojans delivered a most thorough collapse, careening through an eight-game losing streak capped by an overtime loss to Washington in their Big Ten tournament opener. A lot clearly went wrong over the last month-plus, enough so that the Trojans wouldn’t have been especially close to playing on even if the committee was picking a 76-team field this season. (March 12)
Updated March 15, 2026
At-Large Impact
Atlantic 10 final: No. 2 VCU vs. No. 4 Dayton, 1 (CBS)
Dayton’s victory over Saint Louis on Saturday bumped somebody out of the main draw and into a play-in game. If the Flyers (23-10) win their first Atlantic 10 tournament since 2003, it will bump someone from the field. Would that be VCU (26-7), or perhaps a relatively unremarkable at-large candidate (such as SMU or Texas)? It’s the most notable question involving the five games being played on Selection Sunday.
Conference Title Games (Both Already In)
Southeastern final: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 4 Vanderbilt, 1 (ESPN)
Arkansas (25-8) finally outlasted Mississippi on Saturday to end the Rebels’ revels at the SEC tournament. Both the Razorbacks and Vanderbilt (26-7) appear to solidly be on the No. 3 or No. 4 line regardless of this result.
Big Ten final: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 7 Purdue, 3:30 (CBS)
Michigan (31-2) is going to be the No. 1 seed in the Midwest regardless of outcome, and that’s without factoring in how little the final game before the selection show historically seems to matter. Purdue (26-8) will try to win a fourth game in four days and looks like it will be a No. 3 seed.
One-Bid League Finals
Ivy final: No. 1 Yale vs. No. 3 Penn, noon (ESPN2)
The Bulldogs (24-5) have won four of the last five Ancient Eight tournaments, a stretch dating back to 2019. (The Ivy lost two tournaments to the pandemic). Penn (17-11) hasn’t earned a field of 68 nod since 2018 but has enjoyed a resurgence under first-year coach Fran McCaffery. Yale ends up on the No. 12 with a victory, with Penn more like a No. 14 seed.
American final: No. 1 South Florida vs. No. 2 Wichita State, 3:15 (ESPN)
The Bulls (24-8) have won 10 in a row; an 11th consecutive victory gets them into the field for the first time since 2012. They split the season series with Wichita State (22-10), which has ripped off seven consecutive victories since it lost at home to South Florida on Feb. 11. The Bulls would probably be a No. 11 seed, while the Shockers would wind up a line or two lower.