INSIDE THE FIELD
Saint Mary’s (27th at-large team)
Record: 26-4 (15-2 West Coast)
Next: vs Gonzaga (Saturday)
The Gaels collected their best win (on paper) of the season Wednesday with a 86-67 thumping of Santa Clara. Sure, they’re 0-3 in Quad 1 games, but they check in at 31st or better in all seven of the metrics the committee can avail themselves of. Saint Mary’s is likely to be the No. 2 seed in the WCC tournament regardless of how it fares Saturday, so it isn’t looking at more three more games before Selection Sunday. The Gaels will move off this list for good with a victory over the Zags, but they’re almost certain to be fine no matter how the next two weeks go. (Feb. 26)
Missouri (28)
Record: 19-9 (9-6 SEC)
Next: at Mississippi State (Saturday)
The Tigers’ hand gets stronger and stronger. Tuesday’s 73-69 defeat of Tennessee bumped Mizzou to 5-5 in Quadrant 1 games and added to a resume that includes no bad losses and victories over Auburn, Florida and Vanderbilt at home and Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road. The Tigers are strictly in don’t-blow-it territory, and if they can pick off Mississippi State and Oklahoma on the road in their next two games, they should be in for an anxiety-free Selection Sunday. (Feb. 25)
Southern Methodist (29)
Record: 19-9 (8-7 ACC)
Next: at Stanford (Saturday)
The Mustangs are just fine. No bad losses, all the metrics in the top 40, and enough quality victories (Louisville and North Carolina at home, Texas A&M on a neutral court in nearby Arlington) to be solidly in the field. Wednesday’s loss at California left SMU at 0-5 in true road games against credible at-large contenders, and that will be a smudge on its profile. The Mustangs close at Stanford, at home against Miami and at Florida State, and they’re likely to be good to go barring a freefall. (Feb. 26)
Texas A&M (30)
Record: 19-9 (9-6 SEC)
Next: vs. Texas (Saturday)
Losing by 15 at Arkansas on Wednesday doesn’t change the calculus for the Aggies, whose task is to avoid a tailspin. A&M is 5-5 on the road, 4-6 in Quadrant 1 games, has no dubious losses and metrics mostly in the 30s and 40s. Saturday is a fine opportunity for the Aggies to help themselves and hurt a rival. A sweep of Texas — which is even closer to the edge of the field — would be a nice bit of insurance in case the two get compared head-to-head by the committee. (Feb. 26)
UCLA (31)
Record: 19-9 (11-6 Big Ten)
Next: at Minnesota (Saturday)
The Bruins clobbered Southern California on Tuesday in a bellwether game for both, following up Saturday’s stirring comeback against Illinois with a 19-point victory. Outside of an ugly trip to Michigan for two games, UCLA has been playing well for about a month, going 7-3 since its Jan. 20 defeat of Purdue. Mick Cronin’s team is 42nd or better in all but one of the seven committee metrics, is 8-9 against the top two quadrants and its worst-loss is a neutral-site stumble against a frisky Cal team. There’s growing daylight between the Bruins and the edge of the field. (Feb. 25)
Auburn (32)
Record: 15-13 (6-9 SEC)
Next: vs. Mississippi (Saturday)
The No. 1 strength of schedule is helping the Tigers stick in the top 45 of all the team sheet rankings. A 12-point loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday certainly didn’t. That denied Auburn a shot at getting on a semblance of a roll heading into March, and instead it has business to attend to against Mississippi and LSU on the Plains in its next two outings. The 5-11 Quad 1 record would probably save the Tigers in argument against the likes of Indiana, Ohio State and Virginia Tech. But if the field tightens with bid thieves next month, it might not be enough. It’s a situation to monitor. (Feb. 25)
Texas (33)
Record: 17-11 (8-7 SEC)
Next: at Texas A&M (Saturday)
No one should have expected the Longhorns to beat Florida, but it’s still a missed opportunity and adds a little more onus to the final three games of the regular season (at Texas A&M, at Arkansas, home against Oklahoma). Texas still owns more high-end victories than most in this portion of the bracket, winning at Alabama and Missouri, beating Georgia and Vanderbilt at home and handling N.C. State in the Maui Invitational. The Longhorns aren’t safe just yet, but they’d still be on the right side of things if the tournament began today. (Feb. 26)
LAST FOUR IN
Texas Christian (34)
Record: 18-10 (8-7 Big 12)
Next: at Kansas State (Saturday)
Winners of five of six thanks to toppling Arizona State 90-78 on Tuesday, the Horned Frogs keep inching closer to bracket safety. High-end wins over Florida and Wisconsin in San Diego as well as Iowa State have TCU on the right side of things, but it’s not a flawless resume. The Horned Frogs’ metrics are still scattered throughout the high 40s and 50s, and their opening-night loss to New Orleans remains the biggest blot on the profile. This weekend’s trip to Kansas State is a game TCU really needs to pin down. (Feb. 25)
California (35)
Record: 20-8 (8-7 ACC)
Next: vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday)
The Golden Bears won their third in a row Wednesday, fending off SMU for a valued quality victory. There is no such help coming in the final three regular-season games, with Cal set to play Pitt, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The Pitt game would be a particularly crushing one to drop since it’s at home, but Cal could stand to move away from the edge of the field just so its No. 330 nonconference schedule doesn’t stand out as much. (Feb. 26)
Santa Clara (36)
Record: 23-7 (14-3 West Coast)
Next: vs. Oregon State (Saturday)
The Broncos lost at Saint Mary’s on Wednesday, and with the setback goes any real chance at the No. 2 seed in the WCC tournament. Yet Santa Clara is still in the top 50 of all the team sheet metrics, owns a home defeat of Saint Mary’s, is 8-6 against the top two quadrants. Oh, and there’s also that loss to No. 309 Loyola Chicago. In a non-chaotic environment, the Broncos would look like a decent choice for one of the last spots in the field if they beat Oregon State and then win a WCC quarterfinal. As insurance, they’d be well-served to take a potential rubber game from Saint Mary’s in the league semis. (Feb. 26)
Virginia Tech (37)
Record: 18-10 (7-8 ACC)
Next: at North Carolina (Saturday)
The Hokies have the sort of profile that looks perfectly borderline in late February but would leave them four or five spots outside the field once some bid snatchers get to work in conference tournaments. Virginia Tech has no losses outside the top two quadrants (though home losses to both No. 72 Stanford and No. 74 Florida State would migrate to Quad 3 if those teams fell outside the top 75) and its results-based metrics fall between 41st and 52nd. The Hokies could really use a victory at either North Carolina or Virginia before the end of the regular season, and avoiding a home loss to Boston College next week is a must. (Feb. 23)
FIRST FOUR ON THE OUTSIDE
Indiana (38)
Record: 17-11 (8-9 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
The Hoosiers have dropped three in a row. The first two — Illinois and Purdue on the road — were not particularly surprising. But Indiana’s now-chronic problems with Northwestern (six consecutive losses to the Wildcats) led to a 72-68 loss on Tuesday, and while that helped pull the Wildcats up enough to be a Quad 2 game rather than a Quad 3 setback, that’s getting lost in the weeds. Indiana remains a combined 4-11 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and it needs a turnaround in a hurry to salvage an NCAA berth. (Feb. 25)
Southern California (39)
Record: 18-10 (7-10 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Nebraska (Saturday)
The reeling Trojans have dropped four in a row after getting pounded Tuesday night at UCLA, and five of their seven team sheet metrics outside the top 50. (Wins Above Bubble places USC at No. 47). Saturday’s visit from Nebraska is a vital opportunity to get things turned around. The Trojans play at Washington and at home against UCLA next week. (Feb. 25)
San Diego State (40)
Record: 19-8 (13-4 MWC)
Next: at New Mexico (Saturday)
The Aztecs took down Utah State at home on Wednesday, which helps — to a point. San Diego State is just 2-5 in Quad 1 games, and the defeat of the Aggies was its first against a likely at-large team. The Aztecs also beat New Mexico, and the return game on Saturday could inch Brian Dutcher’s bunch closer to landing inside the field. (Feb. 26)
Seton Hall (41)
Record: 19-9 (9-8 Big East)
Next: at Connecticut (Saturday)
The Pirates finished a season sweep of Georgetown on Saturday with a 51-47 victory, but it didn’t nudge them into the top 50 of any of the committee’s rankings and they still have only one victory against a likely tournament team (N.C. State at the Maui Invitational). It’s a pretty simple deal for Seton Hall: Beat UConn in Storrs and/or St. John’s at home (March 6) — preferably both — or go win the Big East tournament. (Feb. 23)
NEXT UP
Ohio State (42)
Record: 17-11 (9-8 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Purdue (Sunday)
Congrats to the Buckeyes for getting their first Quad 1 victory. Never mind that the game itself happened a month into the season; Northwestern moving into the top 75 means Ohio State’s Dec. 6 triumph in Evanston counts. So does Wednesday’s 74-57 drubbing at Iowa, leaving the Buckeyes at 1-10 in Quad 1 contests. Could the Buckeyes be this year’s answer to 2025 North Carolina, a team with good metrics, virtually no bad losses and almost nary a quality win in sight? Those Tar Heels went 1-12 in Quad 1 games and got a ticket to Dayton. Ohio State shouldn’t bank on it. It has a lot riding on Sunday’s visit from Purdue. (Feb. 26)
New Mexico (43)
Record: 21-7 (12-5 MWC)
Next: vs. San Diego State (Saturday)
Tuesday’s loss at Nevada isn’t a crusher for the Lobos, with their metrics barely changing. Those numbers didn’t have New Mexico in the field before, and a team whose best victories are over VCU (road) and Santa Clara (home) doesn’t have the most overwhelming profile to begin with. So here’s the question: Will 26-8 and a loss in the Mountain West title game be enough for the Lobos? Hard to say for sure, but it’s possible New Mexico already is on the spot to win a conference tournament to get in. (Feb. 25)
VCU (44)
Record: 21-7 (12-3 Atlantic 10)
Next: vs. Fordham (Saturday)
The Rams played 10 awesome minutes at Saint Louis on Friday, followed by nearly 18 perfectly serviceable minutes. Then the Billikens went on a 21-2 run over about five minutes, and that was that. VCU’s 10-game winning streak is over, and for all intents and purposes, so are its at-large hopes. The Rams are 0-5 in Quad 1 games and probably won’t play another one unless they meet Saint Louis in the A-10 title game. Win that, and the problem is solved. But a resume topped by neutral-site defeats of South Florida and Virginia Tech probably won’t move the needle even if VCU maintains its across-the-board top-50 metrics without winning an automatic bid. (Feb. 20)
Oklahoma State (45)
Record: 17-11 (5-10 Big 12)
Next: at Cincinnati (Saturday)
The best thing about the Cowboys is they really haven’t done anything disqualifying. The worst thing? There isn’t that much more that is particularly qualifying for an at-large. They’re 1-8 in Quadrant 1 games, 1-6 on the road and peak at 58th in the team sheet metrics. Tuesday’s overtime defeat of West Virginia halted a five-game slide for Oklahoma State, which at least has chances to improve its profile (at Cincinnati, at Central Florida, vs. Houston) to close the regular season. (Feb. 25)
West Virginia (46)
Record: 16-12 (7-8 Big 12)
Next: vs. BYU (Saturday)
The Mountaineers have lost three in a row for the first time this season. It’s an inopportune time for a slump, but there’s just enough good on the resume (wins over Kansas and Central Florida) to warrant West Virginia a continued mention. (Feb. 25)
Cincinnati (47)
Record: 15-13 (7-8 Big 12)
Next: vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday)
A 12-point loss at Texas Tech brought an end to the Bearcats’ four-game winning streak, and they remain an at-large longshot. Cincinnati rates well in predictive metrics, for what little good that does with the committee. Opportunities against BYU and at Texas Christian next week remain. (Feb. 25)