Updated March 11, 2026
INSIDE THE FIELD
Texas A&M (28)
Record: 21-10 (11-7 SEC)
Next: vs. Oklahoma or South Carolina (Thursday)
The Aggies shouldn’t be sweating come Selection Sunday after beating Kentucky and LSU (the latter in overtime) in the final week of the regular season. Texas A&M rates as the best of the No. 10 seeds entering the week of power conference tournaments, and it is more likely to go up a line rather than down. Unless there are a spate of conference tournament upsets, the Aggies will be free and clear of a trip to Dayton, too. (March 9)
Central Florida (29)
Record: 20-10 (9-9 Big 12)
Next: vs. Cincinnati (Wednesday)
The Knights’ three-game slide to close the regular season has pushed them into the picture for a double-digit seed, but they’re still a team with few obvious flaws. They rate in the top 40 of all three results-based metrics on the team sheet, they’re a solid 5-6 in Quadrant 1 games, their worst loss came at home against a likely NIT- or Crown-bound Oklahoma State and they’re 7-5 away from Orlando. Toss in victories over BYU, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Christian and Texas Tech, and Central Florida is in good shape — just not as good as they were two weeks ago. (March 9)
Ohio State (30)
Record: 20-11 (12-8 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Iowa or Maryland (Thursday)
See? This is how it’s done. The Buckeyes delivered a timely three-game winning streak, and they’ve gone from a huge question mark with no Quadrant 1 victories to one that happily took advantage of the misery near the edge of the field and solidified their standing. Ohio State’s worst team sheet metric is 42nd in KPI and they have no bad losses. Thanks to their own work (beating Purdue) and solid play from others improving their own rankings (Wisconsin and Northwestern), Ohio State also owns three Quad 1 triumphs.
Maybe that’s skimpy enough to flirt with a trip to nearby Dayton, but that seems unlikely unless there are bid snatchers in leagues like the Atlantic 10, Mid-American and Mountain West that nudge regular season champs into the at-large field. (March 9)
N. C. State (31)
Record: 19-12 (10-8 ACC)
Next: vs. Pitt (Wednesday)
The Wolfpack has dropped four in a row and six of its last seven, and that might be a problem if this was a year when a lot of teams around the edge of the field could show a pulse for a week or two at a time. That largely hasn’t happened outside of UCLA, Texas Christian and Ohio State, which means a team with a profile that is not distinguished but also not offensive can maintain a cushion. N.C. State rates between 30th and 45th in the committee’s seven metrics, it is 8-6 away from Raleigh and it has some differentiating victories against borderline tournament teams (SMU, VCU, Virginia Tech). The slide has brought a trip to Dayton into play, but the Wolfpack (like Ohio State) has more to fear from Saint Louis, Utah State and Miami (Ohio) losing in their respective conference tournaments than getting overtaken by so-so at-large candidates. (March 9)
Missouri (32)
Record: 20-11 (10-8 SEC)
Next: vs. Kentucky or LSU (Thursday)
The Tigers’ metrics have retrenched a bit after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Arkansas, but they still rate in the top 50 in five of the team sheet rankings (and 52nd in another). The resume remains the same: No bad losses and a reputable group of victories (Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road). Another win wouldn’t hurt, even if it’s just viewed as an insurance policy to get out of going to Dayton on a quick turnaround. (March 9)
Santa Clara (33)
Record: 26-8 (15-3 West Coast)
The Broncos couldn’t quite spoil Gonzaga’s going-away party at the WCC tournament, gamely creating frustrations at the defensive end for 30 minutes before the Bulldogs pulled away. A victory would have definitively averted a trip to Dayton, but it’s possible Santa Clara’s first NCAA trip since 1996 includes direct entry to the round of 64, anyway. The Broncos were 8-7 against the top two quadrants, including a pair of victories over Saint Mary’s, and they land in the low 30s and high 40s of most of the team sheet metrics. Unless there is total chaos elsewhere the rest of the week, it looks like Herb Sendek will take a fourth school to the NCAA tournament. (March 11)
LAST FOUR IN
Texas (34)
Record: 18-13 (9-9 SEC)
Next: vs. Mississippi (Wednesday)
The Longhorns stumbled home with four losses in their last five games, creating a little vulnerability — to get sent to a play-in game, certainly, but also to get nudged uncomfortably close to the edge of the field if chaos unfolds elsewhere. The numbers (six of seven team sheet rankings between 33rd and 44th) and the 6-9 Quad 1 record should help, but Texas would be wise to beat former coach Chris Beard’s new team to do its part to solidify its standing. (March 9)
Southern Methodist (35)
Record: 20-12 (8-10 ACC)
Next: vs. Louisville (Wednesday)
The Mustangs did what was required, beating Syracuse to end a four-game losing streak. But they haven’t escaped the gravitational pull of a trip to Dayton just yet. SMU is between 37th and 47th in all seven team sheet metrics, are 4-8 in Quad 1 games, 5-4 in Quad 2 and 11-0 in everything else. It is 3-8 on the road, with the victories coming at Mississippi State, Pitt and Wake Forest. If SMU gets sunk, that lack of road success is going to be a big part of it. (The Mustangs did pick off Texas A&M in nearby Arlington). Beating Louisville would probably insulate the Mustangs from all but an extreme invasion of bid snatcher this week. There aren’t many potent threats lurking behind them in the at-large pecking order. (March 11)
VCU (36)
Record: 24-7 (15-3 Atlantic 10)
Next: vs. Duquesne or Rhode Island (Friday)
The Rams earned their 13th victory in 14 outings by spoiling Dayton’s regular-season home finale, and they’ll head to the A-10 tournament in Pittsburgh with exactly one loss to a team not in at-large contention (Jan. 10 at George Mason) and exactly one victory over a team with even a remote shot at an at-large (Virginia Tech). VCU’s metrics are fine if not eye-catching, just one more piece of a perfectly cromulent resume that is neither overwhelmingly impressive nor offensive. The Rams are 2-5 in Quad 1 games, and they won’t add to that haul unless it beats Saint Louis in the A-10 final — at which point bickering over VCU’s at-large worthiness will be moot. (March 7)
Indiana (37)
Record: 18-13 (9-11 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Northwestern (Wednesday)
The Hoosiers are 3-11 in Quad 1 games, beating Purdue and Wisconsin at home and UCLA on the road, and they didn’t lose a game outside the top two quadrants. That’s about as far as the good goes beyond a fairly friendly set of predictive metrics. Losers of five out of six to close the regular season, Indiana probably needs at least two victories at the Big Ten tournament (and possibly more, depending on the prevalence of bid thieves) to make the field. (March 9)
FIRST FOUR ON THE OUTSIDE
Auburn (38)
Record: 16-15 (7-11 SEC)
Next: vs. Mississippi State (Wednesday)
Once more, for the people in the back: No 16-loss team has ever earned an at-large berth, and no team less than two games over .500 has ever earned an at-large berth. The Tigers have lost eight of their last 10 to tumble into this predicament. Yes, they faced the third-toughest schedule in Division I, and yes, their metrics line up between 29th and 46th. But the three results-based formulae have Auburn at 44th, 45th and 46th, and more prosaically, isn’t the point to win games? That this Auburn team would probably be a no-doubt-about-it selection in a 76-team field — especially if it wins even once in the SEC tournament — is a compelling argument against postseason expansion. (March 9)
California (39)
Record: 21-10 (9-9 ACC)
Next: vs. Florida State (Wednesday)
The Golden Bears are hovering in the 50s in results-based rankings, and their late losses to Pitt and Wake Forest did them no favors. The nonconference schedule strength is still a problem (329th), but there is an opportunity in a possible quarterfinal against Duke if Cal can get past Florida State. If not, they can go ahead and start applying an NIT sticker or two to the court at Haas Pavilion. (March 9)
New Mexico (40)
Record: 22-9 (13-7 Mountain West)
Next: vs. Boise State or San José State (Thursday)
The Lobos really did have a shot at an at-large berth two weeks ago, but three losses out of four have effectively sunk those hopes. The 2-6 record in Quad 1 games (highlighted by a victory at VCU) isn’t remarkable, nor are metrics that put them between 45th and 58th. It’s Mountain West title-or-bust for New Mexico, which could get a shot at fellow at-large longshot San Diego State in the league semifinals.
Virginia Tech (41)
Record: 19-13 (8-10 ACC)
An overtime loss to Wake Forest on the first day of the ACC tournament effectively finishes off the Hokies, who have been toting a resume worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NIT for weeks. Virginia Tech is 2-10 in Quad 1 games, doesn’t rank higher than 50th in any team sheet metric, hasn’t won back-to-back games since mid-January and dropped seven of its last 10. The Hokies had plenty of chances and couldn’t capitalize on nearly enough; the victory at home over Virginia and another at Clemson isn’t going to get the job done. (March 11)
NEXT UP
San Diego State (42)
Record: 20-10 (14-6 Mountain West)
Next: vs. Colorado State or Fresno State (Thursday)
The Aztecs had dropped four of five before fending off UNLV on Friday night to close the regular season. Their team sheet rankings are unremarkable but not disqualifying, with all but one of them between 44th and 55th. A 2-7 Quadrant 1 record doesn’t move the needle, and they own two victories against even remotely plausible at-large teams (Utah State and New Mexico at home). It’s unlikely San Diego State can add enough heft to its profile next week while still taking a loss. (March 7)
Oklahoma (43)
Record: 17-14 (7-11 SEC)
Next: vs. South Carolina (Wednesday)
The Sooners are verifiably interesting. After falling under .500 on Feb. 4, they won six of their next eight while picking up victories over Vanderbilt, Georgia, Auburn, Missouri and Texas. Oklahoma is 3-9 in Quad 1 — par for the course this far from the edge of the field — 6-5 in Quad 2 and undefeated beyond that. The Sooners fare better in predictive metrics than results-based measures, where they land in the 40s in all three. As well as Oklahoma is playing, it could be a nuisance or maybe even capable of a deep run in the SEC tournament. (March 9)
Stanford (44)
Record: 20-12 (9-9 ACC)
As interesting as the Cardinal’s 5-6 Quad 1 record is compared to other teams in this neighborhood, the four Quad 3 losses — including Tuesday’s last-second setback on a tip in against Pitt in the first round of the ACC tournament — stand out in the wrong way. Stanford’s had one of the weirder profiles among the teams near the edge of the field for the last month and a half, but there’s not enough there to get it any place except the NIT come Sunday. (March 11)
Seton Hall (45)
Record: 20-11 (10-10 Big East)
Next: vs. Creighton (Thursday)
The Pirates went 0-6 against the three tourney-bound Big East teams, and 10-4 against the rest of the league. Their overall profile is skimpy, with a 1-5 Quadrant 1 record highlighted by a Maui Invitational defeat of N.C. State. With Friday night’s loss to St. John’s, the path to the NCAA tournament is to win three games in three days in New York. (March 7)
Cincinnati (46)
Record: 18-14 (9-9 Big 12)
Next: vs. Central Florida (Wednesday)
The Bearcats have won seven of their last nine after dispatching Utah on the first day of the Big 12 tournament. If there is going to be any kind of credible at-large hope for Cincinnati, it needs to take down Central Florida in the second round and regular season champ Arizona in the quarterfinals. The Bearcats are 3-11 in Quad 1 games and 3-11 away from home, which is the sort of thing that happens when you don’t start building a resume until the final two months of the season. If the evaluation period was from mid-January to now, Cincinnati would be in. But the earlier games count, too. (March 11)
Oklahoma State (47)
Record: 19-13 (6-12 Big 12)
Next: vs. Texas Christian (Wednesday)
A first-round defeat of Colorado in the Big 12 tournament keeps the Cowboys alive for another day, and they do have some things going for them if they can win a couple more times. Oklahoma State is in the top 50 of all three results-based measures the committee looks at, and it has no losses outside the top two quadrants. Of course, they’re 2-9 in Quad 1 games, a situation they can improve against TCU in the Big 12 second round and, if successful against the Horned Frogs, against Kansas on Thursday. (March 11)
West Virginia (48)
Record: 18-13 (9-9 Big 12)
Next: vs. Brigham Young (Wednesday)
The weirdness continues in Morgantown. In the last three weeks, the Mountaineers managed to lose at home to Utah and at Kansas State — the Big 12’s two worst teams — while also picking off Brigham Young and completing a home-and-home sweep of Central Florida. The Mountaineers’ results-based metrics — all in the 60s — suggest they have no shot at an at-large, yet they’re a perfectly solid 5-8 in Quad 1 games. West Virginia could be an intriguing threat to pull off a colossal upset in the Big 12 quarterfinals, assuming it doesn’t lose to BYU in its tournament opener. (March 11)
Arizona State (49)
Record: 17-15 (7-11 Big 12)
Next: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday)
The Sun Devils have five Quad 1 victories (against 10 losses) and rank in the 50s of all the results-based metrics. That’s good enough for a mention this deep into the conversation, and the fact they’ve beaten Texas Tech and Kansas suggests there’s a faint chance they could catch fire in Kansas City. Step one is in the books, turning back Baylor on Tuesday. But next is Iowa State, and Arizona State just lost to the Cyclones by 21 last weekend. (March 11)
Belmont (50)
Record: 26-6 (16-4 Missouri Valley)
The Bruins are headed for the NIT, but a team with that gaudy a record will have its supporters, so an explanation is in order. Belmont was 0-1 in Quadrant 1 games (a victory over Northern Iowa that only became a Quad 1 contest when the Panthers won Arch Madness), lost four Quadrant 3 games and have a nonconference schedule strength ranked 343rd The 5-2 Quad 2 record is nice, but the Bruins rank in the top 60 of just one team sheet metric and just gave up 100 points to Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals. (March 9)
Southern California (51)
Record: 18-13 (7-13 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Washington (Wednesday)
The Trojans’ slide is at seven after getting clobbered by 21 at home by UCLA on Saturday. USC is a perfect example of why the word “lock” should be used hesitatingly, especially prior to March. A month ago, the Trojans were 18-6 and on a clear track for the postseason. Now, their best player exited the program on the first day of March, they’re 2-9 in Quad 1 games and a team clearly playing out the string. (March 9)