Updated March 14, 2026
INSIDE THE FIELD
Central Florida (28)
Record: 21-11 (9-9 Big 12)
The Knights ended a three-game slide with a frantic rally late in regulation of what became an overtime defeat of Cincinnati, and that should put an end to any question about how they’ll be treated by the committee even if a Big 12 quarterfinal matchup with Arizona unfolded in predictable fashion. Central Florida rates in the top 40 of all three results-based metrics on the team sheet, is a solid 5-8 in Quadrant 1 games, its worst loss came at home against a likely NIT- or Crown-bound Oklahoma State and it is 8-6 away from Orlando. Toss in victories over BYU, Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas Christian and Texas Tech, and the Knights are in good shape. They should be clear of Dayton. (March 13)
Texas A&M (29)
Record: 21-11 (11-7 SEC)
The Aggies shouldn’t be sweating come Selection Sunday after beating Kentucky and LSU (the latter in overtime) in the final week of the regular season, though a blowout loss to Oklahoma on Thursday night meant they couldn’t build on it for long in the SEC tournament. The Aggies might get shipped to Dayton if another four bid thieves (Atlantic 10, Big East, Mountain West and Southeastern) manifest themselves, but in all likelihood they’ll just be a rock-solid No. 10 seed. (March 13)
Iowa (30)
Record: 21-12 (10-10 Big Ten)
Passed by Ohio State after a loss to the Buckeyes on the third day of the Big Ten tournament, the Hawkeyes are included simply for the sake of thoroughness. They have a good-but-not-great profile, with victories over Nebraska, Ohio State and UCLA at home, and besides losing on the road to a poor Maryland team and an even more dreadful Penn State bunch, the Hawkeyes avoided any other missteps. The team sheet metrics look more than serviceable — all but one of them is between 25th and 40th — and Iowa is likely getting ticketed for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed come Sunday. (March 13)
N. C. State (31)
Record: 20-13 (10-8 ACC)
A split in Charlotte is going to be more than enough to get the Wolfpack into the field. Now, can it avoid Dayton? That’s going to depend on how much chaos there is in the next couple of days. N.C. State rates between 30th and 46th in the committee’s seven metrics, it is 9-7 away from Raleigh and it has some differentiating victories against borderline tournament teams (SMU, VCU, Virginia Tech).
One other thought. While it isn’t the most likely outcome, it is possible N.C. State, Santa Clara, VCU and Texas wind up as the four Dayton-bound at-large teams. The committee is supposed to avoid regular-season rematches in the first round, and the Wolfpack faced Texas and VCU. Could a reunion with former N.C. State coach and current Santa Clara sideline boss Herb Sendek be in the offing? (March 13)
Miami of Ohio (32)
Record: 31-1 (18-0 Mid-American)
No team with 29 or more victories has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament, and no eligible team with two or fewer losses has been snubbed. Nonetheless, the RedHawks are an immensely curious case study for the committee, mainly because there isn’t much precedent of how a 31-1 team with the second-worst nonconference schedule and no high-end games (let alone victories) gets treated as an at-large team.
Miami’s MAC quarterfinal loss to Massachusetts leaves it at the committee’s mercy, but is this season and thisset of underwhelming teams at the edge of the field the time to turn away this sort of team? Probably not. Plus, the RedHawks enter Friday ranked 37th in Wins Above Bubble; last year, when WAB made its team sheets debut, its highest-ranked team to get left out was West Virginia at No. 43. Truth is, no one knows what the committee will do with Miami, with a spot in an 8/9 game, a No. 10 seed, a place in Dayton and a complete snub all in play. That’s a wide range of outcomes, but the guess here is a single loss won’t keep the RedHawks out of the field of 68. (March 13)
Santa Clara (33)
Record: 26-8 (15-3 West Coast)
The Broncos couldn’t quite spoil Gonzaga’s going-away party at the WCC tournament, gamely creating frustrations at the defensive end for 30 minutes before the Bulldogs pulled away. A victory would have definitively averted a trip to Dayton, but it’s possible Santa Clara’s first NCAA trip since 1996 includes direct entry to the round of 64, anyway. The Broncos were 8-7 against the top two quadrants, including a pair of victories over Saint Mary’s, and they land in the low 30s and high 40s of most of the team sheet metrics. Unless there is total chaos elsewhere the rest of the week, it looks like Herb Sendek will take a fourth school to the NCAA tournament. (March 11)
LAST FOUR IN
Missouri (34)
Record: 20-12 (10-8 SEC)
The Tigers’ metrics have retrenched a bit after back-to-back-to-back losses to Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kentucky, but they still rate between 39th and 51st in six of the seven metrics. The resume remains the same: No bad losses and a reputable group of victories (Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road). The Tigers are seriously vulnerable to getting sent to Dayton, but a lot would have to go wrong to keep them out of the field. (March 13)
VCU (35)
Record: 25-7 (15-3 Atlantic 10)
Next: vs. Saint Joseph’s (Saturday)
The Rams have won 14 out of 15, and they possess a list of quality victories (vs. South Florida, at Dayton, vs. Virginia Tech) that move no needles, they also have nothing on their resume worse than a loss at George Mason. Beating Duquesne on Friday did nothing to change things for VCU, which is 2-5 in Quad 1 games and won’t add to that haul unless it beats Saint Louis in the A-10 final — at which point bickering over VCU’s at-large worthiness will be moot. But with so many other teams wilting, simply handling business has made the Rams look far better than anyone could have envisioned at this point. (March 14)
Texas (36)
Record: 18-14 (9-9 SEC)
Wouldn’t it be something if Texas winds up missing the NCAA tournament because it couldn’t beat former coach Chris Beard and his 15th-seeded Mississippi team on Wednesday. The 76-66 loss was the Longhorns’ fifth in six games, and as solid as the 6-9 Quad 1 record is (for this part of the bracket, anyway) and the generally solid metrics (six of the seven are between 39th and 46th), no one should be surprised or anguished if Texas gets a ticket to Dayton. If that happens, the Longhorns have no one to blame but themselves. (March 12)
Southern Methodist (37)
Record: 20-13 (8-10 ACC)
Playing Louisville close on Wednesday is all well and good, but it won’t make the next few days any easier for the Mustangs. SMU has a largely inoffensive resume — SMU is between 37th and 49th in all seven team sheet metrics, are 4-10 in Quad 1 games, 5-3 in Quad 2 and 11-0 in everything else — and the gravitational pull of Dayton is strong. But the Mustangs were only 3-8 on the road, and it’s sure to be cited if they get left out. That, and some bid snatching in places like the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, because upsets in those conference tournaments are SMU’s greatest threat now. (March 12)
FIRST FOUR ON THE OUTSIDE
Oklahoma (38)
Record: 19-15 (7-11 SEC)
Was it just barely too little, too late? The Sooners followed a nine-game skid by winningf eight of their last 11, and pushed Arkansas in an 82-79 SEC quarterfinal loss on Friday night. The easy comparison here is 2022 Texas A&M, another SEC team that got sideways for a month (eight consecutive losses) before going 8-2 the rest of the way and just missing the field after an SEC title game loss. Oklahoma’s — 4-10 in Quad 1, 6-5 in Quad 2, undefeated beyond that, all but one team sheet metric in the 40s — puts it in the conversation. The pairing of a victory over Arkansas and no more bid thievery elsewhere will get the Sooners close. (March 14)
Auburn (39)
Record: 17-16 (7-11 SEC)
The Tigers beat Mississippi State and fell to Tennessee this week, so they come out of the SEC tournament right about where they were coming in. Auburn played the nation’s third-toughest schedule, owns victories Florida, Arkansas, St. John’s and Kentucky, and its team sheet rankings place it between 27th and 45th. Also: No at-large pick has ever been less than two games over .500 (1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia were 16-14), and no at-large pick has ever entered the tournament with 16 or more losses. The Tigers’ offense went silent for six-and-a-half agonizing minutes as Tennessee scored 20 consecutive points and flipped a 10-point deficit into a 10-point lead. That stretch may have been the final blow for Auburn’s tournament hopes as the Tigers fell to 4-13 in Quad 1 games. It’s more about who you beat than who you play, or at least it should be. Whether Auburn makes it or not will provide the committee’s answer to that ever-relevant question. (March 13)
San Diego State (40)
Record: 22-10 (14-6 Mountain West)
Next: vs. Utah State (Saturday)
A 1-4 wobble late in the regular season — two sets of back-to-back losses sandwiched around a home defeat of Utah State — appears to have ended the Aztecs’ at-large chances. But lo and behold, a Pac-12-bound program predicated on defense has limited both Colorado State and New Mexico to exactly 62 points in its first two Mountain West tournament games to give itself a chance to leave the league with yet another title. The 3-6 Quadrant 1 record doesn’t pop off the page, and team sheet rankings in the 40s and 50s are unremarkable and would remain so with a loss. Plus, there’s the recent history of the committee’s tendency to underseed Mountain West teams relative to their metrics. It adds up to the Aztecs really needing to beat Utah State again to get into the NCAA field for the 13th time in 17 tournaments. (March 14)
New Mexico (41)
Record: 22-10 (13-7 Mountain West)
The Lobos really did have a shot at an at-large berth three weeks ago, but four losses out of six to close the season effectively sunk those hopes. The 2-7 record in Quad 1 games (highlighted by a victory at VCU) isn’t remarkable, nor are metrics that put them in the 40s and 50s. Friday night’s 64-62 loss to San Diego State pretty much put an end to New Mexico’s dreams of a third consecutive NCAA appearance. (March 14)
NEXT UP
Indiana (42)
Record: 18-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers simply had to beat Northwestern, historically a low bar for two programs of vastly different basketball pedigrees. But the Wildcats have had Indiana’s number, winning seven in a row against the Hoosiers including a 74-61 defeat in the Big Ten second round on Wednesday. Indiana is 3-10 in Quad 1 games, and while it doesn’t have a truly terrible loss to mar its resume, the Hoosiers have plenty of defeats. They dropped six of seven to close the season, and it’s unlikely the committee gives clemency to a team whose greatest virtue was avoiding a gargantuan sin. (March 12)
Virginia Tech (43)
Record: 19-13 (8-10 ACC)
An overtime loss to Wake Forest on the first day of the ACC tournament effectively finishes off the Hokies, who have been toting a resume worthy of a No. 1 seed in the NIT for weeks. Virginia Tech is 2-10 in Quad 1 games, doesn’t rank in the top 50 in any team sheet metric, hasn’t won back-to-back games since mid-January and dropped seven of its last 10. The Hokies had plenty of chances and couldn’t capitalize on nearly enough; the victory at home over Virginia and another at Clemson isn’t going to get the job done. (March 11)
Seton Hall (44)
Record: 21-12 (10-10 Big East)
The Pirates are 0-7 against the three tourney-bound Big East teams after falling to St. John’s in Friday’s Big East semifinals. Their overall profile is skimpy, with a 1-5 Quadrant 1 record highlighted by a Maui Invitational defeat of N.C. State. There’s just not a lot of there there, and Seton Hall isn’t going to muster the same sympathy as they generated prior to an inspired NIT title run two years ago. (March 14)
California (45)
Record: 21-11 (9-9 ACC)
The nonconference strength of schedule (329th) was probably going to get the Golden Bears all along, but dropping three of four to close the season definitely did the job. They were down 12 at halftime of a 95-89 loss to Florida State in the ACC second round, a defeat that effectively consigns Cal to the NIT. (March 12)
Stanford (46)
Record: 20-12 (9-9 ACC)
As interesting as the Cardinal’s 5-6 Quad 1 record is compared to other teams in this neighborhood, the four Quad 3 losses — including Tuesday’s last-second setback on a tip in against Pitt in the first round of the ACC tournament — stand out in the wrong way. Stanford’s had one of the weirder profiles among the teams near the edge of the field for the last month and a half, but there’s not enough there to get it any place except the NIT come Sunday. (March 11)
Oklahoma State (47)
Record: 19-14 (6-12 Big 12)
While the results-based metrics were always far friendlier than other measures to the Cowboys, their 2-10 record in Quad 1 games meant their outcomes weren’t that good. Oklahoma State led for much of the second half before TCU overtook it late for a 95-88 victory on Wednesday as the last potential Big 12 bid snatcher was shuffled out of the field before the top four seeds took the court in Kansas City. (March 12)
Cincinnati (48)
Record: 18-15 (9-9 Big 12)
The Bearcats won seven of nine before squandering an eight-point edge in the final 2:17 of regulation against Central Florida. The overtime loss to the Knights puts an end to the faint at-large hopes of a team that went 3-12 in Quad 1 games and 3-12 away from home. Cincinnati would have been a strong candidate if only games from the final two months of the seasons were under consideration, but that darned first half of the season still counts, too. (March 12)
Florida State (49)
Record: 18-15 (10-8 ACC)
Although the Seminoles’ bid of an upset of Duke fell short, the mere mention at this point should be a cause for celebration. Florida State won 10 of its last 13, and a profile that includes victories at Miami and Clemson and a 6-5 road record would hold up pretty well with this year’s edge of the field were it not for the slow start. A 3-10 Quad 1 record and a Quad 3 loss to Massachusetts hurts. The results-based team sheet rankings — all but outside the top 60 — aren’t helpful, either, but it’s worth noting the Seminoles were 134th in the NET on Jan. 16 and sit at 62nd on Friday morning. Second-half-of-the-season Florida State probably wins an 8/9 or 7/10 game. Full-season Florida State just didn’t do enough. (March 13)
West Virginia (50)
Record: 18-14 (9-9 Big 12)
With results-based metrics in the 60s entering the Big 12 tournament, the Mountaineers were an extreme longshot to even end up among the first four teams out of the field. That definitely isn’t happening after a 68-48 drubbing administered by Brigham Young on Wednesday. A 5-9 Quad 1 record won’t be enough to get West Virginia anywhere close to in, especially with a profile that includes losses to Utah and Kansas State, the bottom two teams in the Big 12 standings. (March 12)
Arizona State (51)
Record: 17-16 (7-11 Big 12)
Iowa State was in choose-the-score territory early Wednesday on the way to a 91-42 rout of the Sun Devils. (The Cyclones were up 40-10 late in the first half). Arizona State finished 4-11 in Quad 1 games, and with none of the team sheet metrics placing better than 55th, there just wasn’t much of an argument beyond a few gaudy victories (Texas Tech and Kansas). (March 12)
Belmont (52)
Record: 26-6 (16-4 Missouri Valley)
The Bruins are headed for the NIT, but a team with that gaudy a record will have its supporters, so an explanation is in order. Belmont was 0-1 in Quadrant 1 games (a victory over Northern Iowa that only became a Quad 1 contest when the Panthers won Arch Madness), lost four Quadrant 3 games and have a nonconference schedule strength ranked 343rd The 5-2 Quad 2 record is nice, but the Bruins rank in the top 60 of just one team sheet metric and just gave up 100 points to Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals. (March 9)
Southern California (53)
Record: 18-14 (7-13 Big Ten)
The Trojans delivered a most thorough collapse, careening through an eight-game losing streak capped by an overtime loss to Washington in their Big Ten tournament opener. A lot clearly went wrong over the last month-plus, enough so that the Trojans wouldn’t have been especially close to playing on even if the committee was picking a 76-team field this season. (March 12)