Updated March 3, 2026
INSIDE THE FIELD
Missouri (28th current at-large team)
Record: 20-9 (10-6 SEC)
Next: at Oklahoma (Tuesday)
That is how it’s done. Tasked with collecting a road win against a struggling Mississippi State, the Tigers obliged with an 88-64 pounding on Saturday. Missouri is in the top 50 of every team sheet metric except the NET, has no poor losses and a fine set of victories (Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road. Dennis Gates’ team is getting awfully close to being safely in the field, if it isn’t there already. One more victory should do it. (March 2)
Texas (29)
Record: 18-11 (9-7 SEC)
Next: at Arkansas (Wednesday)
The Longhorns’ two-game wobble is over thanks to a 76-70 victory at Texas A&M to secure a season split with the Aggies. Texas is now
6-8 in Quadrant 1 games and in the top 40 of six of the seven metrics on the committee’s team sheets. While there isn’t much top-tier success — a good five-day stretch at Alabama and at home against Vanderbilt in January is still carrying the Longhorns’ resume — an ample batch of secondary victories is the sort of thing that will play well on the No. 9 or No. 10 line. A lot would have to go wrong for Sean Miller’s first team in Austin to miss the field of 68, and another victory this week would probably remove any doubt prior to the SEC tournament. (March 2)
Southern Methodist (30)
Record: 19-10 (8-8 ACC)
Next: vs. Miami (Wednesday)
The Mustangs could have made life easier for themselves even by snagging a Bay Area split, but it was not to be. While they don’t boast an optimal profile, it still looks quite a bit more complete than the teams scrapping for the last few spots in the field. SMU is in the top 45 in all the committee metrics, owns some decent victories (Louisville and North Carolina at home, Texas A&M on a neutral court in nearby Arlington) and have no truly glaring losses.
A 3-7 road record with victories over Mississippi State, Pitt and Wake Forest is nothing to brag about, but there’s still some wiggle room left. It would be great to beat Miami and/or Florida State this week, not just for a couple Quad 2 opportunities but because it would help the Mustangs avoid playing on the first day of the ACC tournament and the risk of an ugly loss next week in Charlotte. (March 2)
UCLA (31)
Record: 19-10 (11-7 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday)
The Bruins fell to 1-6 outside the Pacific time zone when they stumbled at Minnesota on Saturday, a problem Mick Cronin would be wise to find a solution to if UCLA ever wants to be more than a midpack team in the Big Ten. Fortunately, record by time zone is not really part of the selection committee’s purview, and the Bruins are situated in the top 50 in all but one the team sheet rankings. The profile is extremely top-heavy; UCLA’s only two victories over projected tournament teams were defeats of Illinois and Purdue at Pauley Pavilion. A visit from Nebraska fits that profile, too, though Saturday’s regular-season finale at Southern California could also serve as a chance to pin down an at-large without too much Selection Sunday heartburn. (March 2)
Texas A&M (32)
Record: 19-10 (9-7 SEC)
Next: vs. Kentucky (Tuesday)
No one in College Station is sad to see February end. The Aggies were 2-6 over the last four weeks, with all the losses coming against likely NCAA tournament teams. Texas A&M is between 32nd and 44th in all but one of the team sheet metrics, have done decent work on the road (notably at Georgia and Texas) and have no bad losses. A split this week in the home finale against Kentucky and a Saturday trip to LSU would alleviate any edge-of-the-field tension — though maybe not eliminate the risk of a play-in trip to Dayton — prior to the SEC tournament. (March 2)
Texas Christian (33)
Record: 19-10 (9-7 Big 12)
Next: at Texas Tech (Tuesday)
Winners of six of seven after handling Kansas State on Saturday, the Horned Frogs have finally escaped a projected trip to Dayton. Well, for now, anyway. A loss in Lubbock this week wouldn’t hurt TCU too much, though a win would be the sort of thing that would remove any lingering doubt that the Horned Frogs will land an at-large. With one exception, their rankings remain scattered throughout the 40s (the Wins Above Bubble is an encouraging 42nd), and defeats of Florida, Iowa State and Wisconsin are helping to offset one of the worst losses of any edge-of-the-field candidate, an opening-night defeat against New Orleans. (March 2)
LAST FOUR IN
Santa Clara (34)
Record: 24-7 (15-3 West Coast)
Next: WCC quarterfinals (Saturday)
Saint Mary’s was a big winner Saturday, solidifying its at-large slot by handling Gonzaga. But that also lifted the boat for the Broncos, who upended the Gaels in January and could see Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinals in what would be a massive insurance opportunity for Herb Sendek’s team. Santa Clara remains in the top 50 of all the metrics after pounding Oregon State to close the regular season, and it is 8-6 against the top two quadrants. The mantra here is don’t mess up, which translates to beating whichever of Pacific, Seattle, Loyola Marymount and San Diego emerge to face the Broncos this Saturday in Las Vegas. (March 2)
Ohio State (35)
Record: 18-11 (10-8 Big Ten)
Next: at Penn State (Tuesday)
On a weekend when so many borderline teams utterly flopped, the Buckeyes handled Purdue 82-74 at home to collect a high-value victory. Ohio State is 2-10 in Quadrant 1 games, hardly the stuff dreams are made of, but it might be enough to slip into the field. Now comes a tricky week to navigate: A trip to last-place Penn State and a home game against fading Indiana. Ohio State hasn’t won back-to-back games since mid-January, and its last three-game winning streak was a six-game run to open the season before Thanksgiving. With metrics mostly in the 30s and a 16-1 record outside the top quadrant, the Buckeyes profile as a relatively inoffensive pick for a double-digit seed. They need to win a couple more — especially at Penn State — to keep it that way. (March 2)
New Mexico (36)
Record: 22-7 (13-5 Mountain West)
Next: vs. Colorado State (Wednesday)
The Lobos handled business against San Diego State at home, and other teams wilting around the country helped them leap into the projected field. They’re in the top 50 in all but one of the team sheet metrics, but there isn’t much top-tier success (2-5 in Quadrant 1). New Mexico’s best victories prior to Saturday came at VCU and at home against Santa Clara, but the real remaining prize besides the Mountain West’s automatic bid is this weekend’s trip to Utah State. The Lobos shouldn’t feel like they’re safely in the field, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that a five-game winning streak prior to a Mountain West title game loss might be enough to snag a ticket to Dayton. (March 2)
Auburn (37)
Record: 15-14 (6-10 SEC)
Next: vs. LSU (Tuesday)
It’s a bit discomforting to think of a team that’s just a game over .500 for the season to be anywhere near the field, but whether the committee would pull the trigger on such a team, Auburn’s profile suggests it would be under heavy discussion. The Tigers are No. 2 nationally in strength of schedule, and they own six victories over likely at-larges (at Florida, against St. John’s in Las Vegas, at home against Arkansas, Kentucky, N.C. State and Texas). And yet … Auburn has dropped seven of eight, and the committee has never selected an at-large team that was less than two games over .500 — and even that last happened in 2001. If the Tigers’ defense remains invisible over the next week and a half, their tournament hopes are bound to vanish as well. (March 2)
FIRST FOUR ON THE OUTSIDE
VCU (38)
Record: 22-7 (13-3 Atlantic 10)
Next: vs. George Mason (Tuesday)
The Rams have won 10 of 11 after clobbering Fordham on Saturday, and they’ve managed not to provide easy reasons to brush them aside. The team sheet metrics are fine, with all but one between 37th and 47th. They’re 6-3 on the road. They have no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses. Of course, there’s a big ol’ donut in the Quad 1 win column, too. A head-to-head defeat of Virginia Tech is helpful; a home loss to New Mexico is not. VCU needs an eye-catching victory, and the only one left available to it — Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10 final, since they’re locked into opposite sides of that bracket — would render moot the need for an at-large berth. (March 2)
Virginia Tech (39)
Record: 18-11 (7-9 ACC)
Next: vs. Boston College (Tuesday)
Saturday was a missed opportunity for the Hokies. They fell at North Carolina and saw their Quad 1 record dip to 2-9. Plenty will be riding on Saturday’s trip to Virginia — a team Virginia Tech beat at home earlier this season — but perhaps the Hokies should be more concerned with Tuesday’s game. The Hokies are 1-6 against Boston College this decade, and a loss in Blacksburg to the Eagles would be the sort of blot that would cause severe damage to a postseason profile. For now, Virginia Tech’s profile looks like it is just good enough to earn a No. 1 seed in the NIT. (March 2)
California (40)
Record: 20-9 (8-8 ACC)
Next: at Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
Well, that wasn’t prudent. The Golden Bears’ three-game winning streak ended Saturday with a loss at home to Pitt. A Quad 3 setback that removes the “hasn’t suffered an inexplicable defeat” card from Cal’s hand. This week offers no significant help with trips to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The Golden Bears don’t have a way to defend their No. 331 nonconference strength of schedule. Cal is going to have work to do in the ACC tournament to stand any chance of landing an at-large. (March 2)
Indiana (41)
Record: 17-12 (8-10 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Minnesota (Wednesday)
It’s a bad time for a four-game losing streak for the Hoosiers, whose cratering in the last two weeks has left them with a 2-11 record in Quadrant 1 games. The victories over Purdue (home) and UCLA (away) are nice, and Indiana’s profile also includes a defeat of Wisconsin. This week’s games against Minnesota and Ohio State should be viewed as must-wins for a streaky team that needs to turn around its fortunes rapidly. (March 2)
NEXT UP
San Diego State (42)
Record: 19-9 (13-5 Mountain West)
Next: at Boise State (Tuesday)
The home defeats of Utah State and New Mexico are nice, but the Aztecs are just 2-5 in Quad 1 games. They rank in the top 40 of none of the team sheet metrics. It’s going to take a deep run in the Mountain West tournament to get San Diego State back into the field, and path to securing a place even in Dayton for the second year in a row is narrowing. (March 2)
Southern California (43)
Record: 18-11 (7-11 Big Ten)
Next: at Washington (Wednesday)
The Trojans’ losing streak reached five with Saturday’s loss to Nebraska. This turned out to be the final game leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara will play for Eric Musselman’s team. The well-traveled wing left the program Sunday, and now USC has to answer a player availability question. Of course, the Trojans’ overall profile is relatively sparse. With only two victories over the projected field — Wisconsin on the road, and Sun Belt top seed Troy at home. (March 2)
Seton Hall (44)
Record: 19-10 (9-9 Big East)
Next: at Xavier (Tuesday)
The Pirates fell to 0-5 against the top three teams in the Big East with Saturday’s 71-67 loss at Connecticut. Seton Hall might have survived that if it thoroughly dominated the rest of the league (it hasn’t, going 9-4) or owned a passel of high-end nonconference victories (it has nothing of note besides beating N.C. State in the Maui Invitational). At this point, even upending St. John’s on Friday isn’t going to be enough for the Pirates to claw into the at-large picture. It may be Big East tournament title-or-bust. (March 2)
Stanford (45)
Record: 18-11 (7-9 ACC)
Next:
A decent 4-5 Quad 1 record gets the Cardinal a look, and it is coming off a rout of SMU on Saturday. But Stanford cracks the top 60 of just one of the seven team sheet metrics and has three Quad 3 losses. The Cardinal isn’t particularly close to the field. (March 2)
West Virginia (46)
Record: 17-12 (8-8 Big 12)
Next: at Kansas State (Tuesday)
A weird team that has beaten Kansas and Brigham Young at home … but also lost to Utah in Morgantown. Picking off BYU on Saturday shows the Mountaineers have a pulse. But that snapped a three-game skid that came a suboptimal time. West Virginia closes with Kansas State and Central Florida, the latter a team it defeated in Orlando last month for its best result away from home. (March 2)
Cincinnati (47)
Record: 16-13 (8-8 Big 12)
Next: vs. Brigham Young (Tuesday)
The Bearcats crushed Oklahoma State by 23 on Saturday to win for the fifth time in six games, but there’s a lot of space between them and the edge of the field. They can make some of it up this week against BYU and Texas Christian. (March 2)
Oklahoma State (48)
Record: 17-12 (5-11 Big 12)
Next: at Central Florida (Tuesday)
The Cowboys have dropped six of seven, and their most redeeming trait (besides a victory over BYU at home) is a quality schedule the final week of the season. They could bolster a 1-8 Quad 1 record against Central Florida and Houston, but the way things have trended of late, that seems unlikely. (March 2)
Dayton (49)
Record: 20-9 (11-5 Atlantic 10)
Next: at Richmond (Tuesday)
Winners of five in a row, the Flyers have an Oklahoma State-like profile, only with three Quadrant 3 losses tacked on. Dayton impressed in last week’s shellacking of A-10 leader Saint Louis, and it gets a home game against VCU on Friday to close the regular season. Maybe this is the year the Flyers win the A-10 tournament for the first time since 2003. That’s certainly their only path to the field of 68. (March 2)