Updated March 5, 2026
INSIDE THE FIELD
UCLA (27th current at-large team)
Record: 20-10 (12-7 Big Ten)
Next: at Southern California (Saturday)
The Bruins aren’t great once they depart the Pacific time zone, but they’re pretty darned good in their neck of the woods. Just ask Illinois, Purdue and now Nebraska, which have all fallen at Pauley Pavilion. While the Quadrant 1 record (4-7) isn’t overwhelming, it’s going to be enough to land a No. 10 seed, plus or minus a line. UCLA blitzed Southern Cal by 19 last week, and an even more lopsided victory is on the table as the Bruins make their way across town to face the Trojans in their regular-season finale. (March 4)
Texas A&M (28)
Record: 20-10 (10-7 SEC)
Next: at LSU (Saturday)
The Aggies effectively punched their ticket by knocking off Kentucky on Tuesday. A pessimist would note they’ve still lost six of nine. An optimism would say they’ve won three of five. And a troll would point out that coach Bucky McMillan has won nearly twice as many games this season as the 11 that predecessor Buzz Williams has collected in his first year at Maryland despite having a comparably late start to building a roster. Texas A&M is probably on its way to roughly a No. 10 seed, and that’s impressive work under the circumstances. (March 4)
Texas Christian (29)
Record: 20-10 (10-7 Big 12)
Next: vs. Cincinnati (Saturday)
No one’s done more to help themselves in the last month than the Horned Frogs, whose 7-1 surge is now highlighted by a 73-65 victory at Texas Tech on Tuesday. That should pretty much lock the Horned Frogs into the field; their result-based metrics are all in the 30s, and they also own defeats of Florida, Iowa State and Wisconsin. After an inauspicious start (losing to New Orleans in its opener), TCU has done enough to land a fourth NCAA berth in five seasons. (March 4)
N.C. State (30)
Record: 19-11 (10-7 ACC)
Next: vs. Stanford (Saturday)
N.C. State fans probably shouldn’t be trying to figure out flight schedules to Chicago, Houston and San José (all of which are regional weekend sites) or whether they can see the cherry blossoms blooming in Washington for the East regional. The Wolfpack has dropped five of six — three of them by at least 29 — and don’t look like a team long for the postseason. But N.C. State is still well-positioned to actually get there based on its overall body of work. It still wouldn’t hurt to get a little insurance when Stanford comes to Raleigh to close the regular season. (March 5)
Missouri (31)
Record: 20-10 (10-7 SEC)
Next: vs. Arkansas (Saturday)
Tuesday’s blowout loss at Oklahoma wasn’t helpful, yet it doesn’t seriously tarnish the Tigers’ overall profile. They remain in the top 50 of all the team sheet metrics except the NET (60th) and KenPom (51st), have no bad losses and own a reputable group of victories (Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road). Mizzou probably has done enough, but picking off Arkansas to close the regular season would make it a cinch for an at-large nod. (March 4)
Texas (32)
Record: 18-12 (9-8 SEC)
Next: vs. Oklahoma (Saturday)
The Longhorns were pummeled by 20 at Arkansas, a result that probably says more about the Razorbacks than Texas. Sean Miller’s bunch is 7-9 in Quadrant 1 games, has no significant metrics problems and looks like it will be a perfectly inoffensive No. 9 or No. 10 or No. 11 seed. With one more victory — either in Austin on Saturday or in the SEC tournament next week — the Longhorns should be able to escape a trip to Dayton to start their postseason. (March 5)
Southern Methodist (33)
Record: 19-11 (8-9 ACC)
Next: at Florida State (Saturday)
Not an ideal time for your first three-game skid of the season, Mustangs. The numbers universally say SMU is a team that ranks in the low 30s and throughout the 40s, and that’s the sort of team that can get invited to begin its postseason in Dayton a few days early. The lack of a high-profile road victory is worrisome, but there are enough decent victories (Louisville and North Carolina at home, Texas A&M on a neutral court in nearby Arlington) to keep SMU’s profile afloat. The absence of a bad loss helps, too. Another win or two would really be welcome. That means the regular-season finale at Florida State, and it definitely means winning at least once if the Mustangs get stuck playing on the first day of the ACC tournament. (March 5)
LAST FOUR IN
Santa Clara (34)
Record: 24-7 (15-3 West Coast)
Next: WCC quarterfinals (Saturday)
Saint Mary’s was a big winner Saturday, solidifying its at-large slot by handling Gonzaga. But that also lifted the boat for the Broncos, who upended the Gaels in January and could see Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinals in what would be a massive insurance opportunity for Herb Sendek’s team. Santa Clara remains in the top 50 of all the metrics after pounding Oregon State to close the regular season, and it is 8-6 against the top two quadrants. The mantra here is don’t mess up, which translates to beating whichever of Pacific, Seattle, Loyola Marymount and San Diego emerge to face the Broncos this Saturday in Las Vegas. (March 2)
Ohio State (35)
Record: 19-11 (11-8 Big Ten)
Next: vs. Indiana (Saturday)
The Buckeyes followed up their upset of Purdue by thumping Penn State by 32 on the road. Those are the results of a team playing for its postseason life and delivering accordingly. Tack on a victory over Indiana this weekend, and Ohio State might find itself playing its way out of a one-hour bus ride to Dayton in two weeks. At minimum, a well-timed good week would decidedly place the Buckeyes on the right side of the in/out conversation. The 2-10 Quadrant 1 record still underwhelms, but there really isn’t much else to hold against Ohio State. (March 5)
Auburn (36)
Record: 16-14 (7-10 SEC)
Next: at Alabama (Saturday)
Apparently, the Plains is doubling as Never Land. After all, there’s never been an at-large selection that was less than two games over .500 and never been an at-large pick with 16 losses. Both would be in play if Auburn — with its No. 3 strength of schedule and four Quad 1 victories — falls to Alabama and then manages a split at the SEC tournament. The Tigers lost seven of eight before beating LSU on Tuesday, an outcome that more than anything seemed to buy Auburn a little time to try to get to right. (March 4)
VCU (37)
Record: 23-7 (14-3 Atlantic 10)
Next: at Dayton (Friday)
Are the Rams, with 11 wins out of 12, nearly all their metrics in the top 50, no bad losses despite ample chances (19-0 against Quad 3 and Quad 4) but only one victory over a projected tournament team (South Florida) just anodyne enough to land an at-large berth? Don’t count on it for the long run, but it isn’t impossible if there’s a distinct lack of chaos in conference tournaments. A head-to-head defeat of Virginia Tech is helpful; a home loss to New Mexico is not. VCU needs an eye-catching victory, and the only one left available to it — Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10 final, since they’re locked into opposite sides of that bracket — would render moot the need for an at-large berth. (March 4)
FIRST FOUR ON THE OUTSIDE
Virginia Tech (38)
Record: 19-11 (8-9 ACC)
Next: at Virginia (Saturday)
Avoided losing to Boston College in a pass/fail moment on Tuesday, but there’s only so much to recommend the Hokies for an at-large berth. They’re 2-9 in Quad 1 games, winning at Clemson and beating Virginia at home. The return game with the Cavaliers in Charlottesville closes out the regular season, and there may not be a power conference team with more riding on its outcome this weekend than Virginia Tech. (March 4)
California (39)
Record: 21-9 (9-8 ACC)
Next: at Wake Forest (Saturday)
Fooled around a bit Wednesday at Georgia Tech before settling in and beating the last-place Yellow Jackets. It adds a road victory but little else, and that nonconference strength of schedule problem (No. 330 nationally) isn’t going away. The Golden Bears have work to do in Charlotte next week, and they’d be ticketed for the 8/9 game in the ACC tournament right now. If that holds up, beating Duke is going to be a prerequisite for an NCAA invitation. Beating Wake Forest on Saturday won’t do too much to help. (March 5)
Indiana (40)
Record: 18-12 (9-10 Big Ten)
Next: at Ohio State (Saturday)
The Hoosiers took out the frustration of a four-game losing streak on Minnesota in their home finale, which was all well and good and definitely better than a loss from Darian DeVries’ perspective. But it isn’t going to move the needle for a team that is 2-11 in Quadrant 1 games with defeats of Purdue (home) and UCLA (away). Saturday’s trip to Ohio State is every bit the must-win that Wednesday’s rout of the Golden Gophers was. (March 5)
New Mexico (41)
Record: 22-8 (13-6 Mountain West)
Next: at Utah State (Saturday)
Is it possible to take a Quad 3 loss against a buzzsaw when you’re in the nation’s sixth-best league? Short answer: Yes. The Lobos became Colorado State’s eighth consecutive victim Wednesday night, and while the Rams are rolling, losing at home to a team that remains outside the top 75 of the NET is anything but ideal for a team hovering around the edge of the field. New Mexico doesn’t have much top-tier success (2-5 in Quadrant 1) and its owns one victory over a projected tournament team (Santa Clara) that probably won’t tip the scales in its favor, though Saturday represents a great chance to add to a relatively modest resume. (March 5)
NEXT UP
Cincinnati (42)
Record: 17-13 (9-8 Big 12)
Next: at Texas Christian (Saturday)
Every year, someone gets left out that wants everyone to invoke the ol’ “eye test,” which is important for getting a driver’s license but isn’t in the NCAA tournament selection criteria. That aside, the fact is the Bearcats have looked like a team worthy of an at-large berth over the last month. They’re 6-1 since Feb. 8 with a 20-point thumping of Central Florida, a 16-point victory at Kansas and now a 22-point mauling of BYU. Trouble is, the three months of the season before that — when Cincinnati was 1-10 in Quad 1 games — count, too. Unlike most everyone else in this neighborhood, the Bearcats are playing as well as they have all year, and that makes them both dangerous and intriguing Saturday at TCU (which itself is coming off a monster victory) and in the Big 12 tournament. (March 4)
Seton Hall (43)
Record: 20-10 (10-9 Big East)
Next: vs. St. John’s (Friday)
The Pirates are 0-5 against the three tourney-bound Big East teams, and 10-4 against the rest of the league. Beating St. John’s would seem to be a must for an at-large berth, but the overall profile is skimpy enough beyond a Maui Invitational defeat of N.C. State that Seton Hall probably has to win the Big East tournament to earn an NCAA invite. (March 4)
Oklahoma State (44)
Record: 18-12 (6-11 Big 12)
Next: vs. Houston (Saturday)
The Cowboys either ended a 1-6 drought with their overtime victory at Central Florida or had a slight uptick in what could still prove to be a forgettable finish. Oklahoma State owns good results-based metrics in the 40s and 50s, but they’re 2-9 in Quad 1 games. Beating Houston to close the regular season would make them a bit more credible threat to track down an NCAA bid heading into the Big 12 tournament, but the Cowboys are still a longshot.
Stanford (45)
Record: 19-11 (8-9 ACC)
Next: at N.C. State (Saturday)
A decent 4-6 Quad 1 record gets the Cardinal a look, and it has won three in a row. But Stanford cracks the top 50 of just one of the seven team sheet metrics and has three Quad 3 losses. The Cardinal needs a long run in Charlotte next week just to maintain any hope. (March 5)
Southern California (46)
Record: 18-12 (7-12 Big Ten)
Next: vs. UCLA (Saturday)
Losers of six in a row after Wednesday’s way-after-dark pounding at Washington in their first game since leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara’s exit, the Trojans look like they’re toast. Their team sheet doesn’t offer much more assurance; a 1-9 record in Quad 1 games anchored by a victory at Wisconsin featuring a 29-point game by a guy no longer on the roster isn’t getting USC to the promised land unless a fabulous trip to the Crown somehow counts. (March 5)
San Diego State (47)
Record: 19-10 (13-6 Mountain West)
Next: vs. UNLV (Saturday)
The Aztecs aren’t making a great case for themselves, dropping four of their last five. Their metrics aren’t good enough for an at-large berth, but with all but one of them in the 40s and 50s, they still merit a mention. Still, it’s not looking good. (March 4)
Arizona State (48)
Record: 16-14 (7-10 Big 12)
Next: at Iowa State (Saturday)
To have any kind of hope, the Sun Devils needed to sweep the daunting final week of the regular season. And lo and behold, they dazzled in a 70-60 upset of Kansas and have won consecutive games for only the second time since mid-December. There are no standout team sheet metrics, with all but one of them in the 50s and 60s, and the four Quad 1 victories are offset a little by the 10 losses in the same category. They could use a top-notch road triumph, and sorry, winning at Big West leader Hawaii (while not the easiest thing to do) doesn’t count. Picking off Iowa State in Ames certainly would. (March 4)
Dayton (49)
Record: 21-9 (12-5 Atlantic 10)
Next: vs. VCU (Friday)
Winners of six in a row, the Flyers have an Oklahoma State-like profile, only with three Quadrant 3 losses tacked on. Dayton impressed in last week’s shellacking of A-10 leader Saint Louis, and it gets a home game against VCU on Friday to close the regular season. Maybe this is the year the Flyers win the A-10 tournament for the first time since 2003. That’s certainly their only path to the field of 68. (March 4)